Jan 29 2010
The Art of Portfolio Performance Assessment
When the economy is in the midst of a major downturn, many investors will immediately conclude that their funds are under-performing. However, before making this blanket assessment, there are several factors that you should take into account. If your fund has declined in value enough to worry you, then it’s time to ask yourself some key questions.
1. Is This Fund Appropriate for You?
A fund that has returned 11% over a given period may seem “better” than a fund that has returned 3% over the same period, but the better-performing fund may have earned those returns by taking on certain market related risks that you might not want to assume. Investment objectives will vary widely among investors, so you need to consider whether the fund fits your time horizon and investment objective.
2. How is this fund performing relative to other funds in its peer group?
Different asset classes, such as stocks and bonds, will perform differently because they have different risks. The value of a stock fund will tend to be sensitive to equity market fluctuations, while bond fund values will respond more to interest rate movements. So before concluding that your stock or bond fund is underperforming relative to one of its peers, be sure that you’re comparing apples to apples.
3. How is the fund performing relative to its appropriate benchmark?
Virtually all mutual funds impose certain requirements that limit the investment options of the portfolio managers. For example, if the investment policy statement of a given stock fund requires that at least 80% of its portfolio assets to be invested in stocks, the portfolio manager will not be able to allocate more than 20% of assets to bonds or cash, even in a bear market. Therefore a reasonable standard for measuring mutual fund performance might be to consider how the fund’s performance compares to the overall performance of an appropriate index (meaning one that matches the subcategory of the fund as closely as possible). If your fund consists of bonds, it obviously makes no sense to compare it to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. There are several classes of stock funds, such as small-caps and international funds for which the Dow is probably not an appropriate comparison.
4. Are there any specific extenuating circumstances to explain the under-performance?
There could be any number of reasons why your fund’s short-term performance may not be particularly meaningful, especially if the economy as a whole has experienced a decline in production. For example, you may have bought a fund that has performed poorly in the past, but you also believe that a new management team will turn this around in the near future. This factor is particularly important to remember after a decade like the 1990’s, where rising annual returns were achieved by many funds. In view of this, you might want to consider whether your expectations are realistic. Before you cash-in your “under-performing” shares, you may want to determine the factors that are driving the performance of your funds.
